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It\u2019s the beginning of the end for smartphone apps as we have known and tapped on them, reckons Gartner. The analyst is calling the start of a \u201cpost-apps\u201d era, based on\u00a0changes in consumer interactions that\u00a0appear driven, in large\u00a0part, by the rise of dominant messaging platforms designed to consume more and more of mobile\u00a0users\u2019 time and attention. It reckons messaging apps\u00a0will become more popular than social media apps within the next two years.<\/p>\n
In a new report, based on a survey\u00a0of mobile users in the US, China and the UK, Gartner\u2019s reading of the app usage tea-leaves shows signs of messaging platforms\u00a0cannibalizing other apps, with\u00a0for example, usage of dedicated video apps declining four percentage points between the 2015 and 2016 editions\u00a0of the survey. (The analyst\u00a0polled just over 3,000 respondents for the 2016 survey, the results of which it\u2019s releasing now, with the poll taking place between\u00a0August 26 and\u00a0October 13.)<\/p>\n
Usage of standalone maps apps also shrunk by three percentage points, year-over-year, according to Gartner\u2019s data. And\u00a0social media app usage reduced by two percentage points vs messaging app usage growing by three percentage points over the same period.<\/p>\n
Shopping (which results in something tangible being delivered), and personal assistant apps (which are designed to shortcut queries) bucked the slide, growing by four percentage points apiece.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s a move away from using native applications to something else,\u201d says Gartner research director Jessica Ekholm, discussing the survey in an interview with TechCrunch. \u201cConsumers are getting less interested in using applications; there are far too many applications. Some of the surveys that we\u2019re doing we see that there\u2019s a stablization in terms of app usage. How many apps they\u2019re downloading, how much time they\u2019re spending finding new applications \u2014 it\u2019s just that people are getting a little bit disinterested in that. People are spending more time with the apps that they\u2019ve already got.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe other thing is, with the digital assistants, we\u2019re seeing that people are switching towards \u2018hey I just want an answer now and quick\u2019 \u2014 so I might as well go with a digital assistant rather than \u2018oh which app is that one? Let me think\u2026 no, I\u2019m just going to ask Siri or whoever\u2019.\u201d<\/p>\n
Social media losing out to messaging is not surprising when you consider how much personal\u00a0sharing has migrated to more bounded\/non-public messaging platform. The analyst notes how \u201cincredibly sticky\u201d messaging apps have become \u2014 with\u00a072 per cent of survey respondents using these types of\u00a0apps at least once per day, according to its survey data.<\/p>\n
In recent years<\/a>\u00a0Facebook has also made a conscious effort to drive usage of its Facebook-branded messaging app Messenger, by closing off the ability<\/a> of mobile users to view Facebook messages unless they download and use\u00a0the Messenger app. That strategy may have cannibalized some usage of Facebook\u2019s\u00a0main social media app but it\u2019s clearly driven usage of Facebook Messenger\u00a0\u2014 to\u00a0beyond\u00a0one billion monthly users<\/a>.\u00a0The company also owns the WhatsApp messaging platform, which also has more than a billion users and is\u00a0hugely popular outside the US, in\u00a0regions such as Europe and South America.<\/p>\n In China, the homegrown WeChat is the dominant messaging force for monopolizing mobile users\u2019 attention, via a platform that plugs in all sorts of additional third party services, from ride-hailing to banking to food ordering. (Gartner\u2019s poll puts\u00a0WeChat\u2019s\u00a0popularity there at a staggering 95 per cent usage). This\u00a0so-called \u2018super app\u2019 model was\u00a0pioneered by WeChat, but players such as Facebook are\u00a0clearly\u00a0gunning to clone the approach for mobile users in the West \u2014 and there are signs the company is sucking\u00a0the oxygen out\u00a0of other apps, even if a Facebook-owned platform is not yet the only<\/em> place to go\u00a0for everything<\/em>.<\/p>\n Can WeChat\u2019s \u2018super app\u2019 model\u00a0be replicated in the West? After all, China\u2019s firewalled Internet and differences in cultural attitudes could also be playing a role\u00a0in WeChat\u2019s\u00a0success. But Ekholm reckons it\u2019s only a matter of time before the US has its own WeChat-esque go-to platform.<\/p>\n \u201cI think it can be and I think we\u2019re heading towards that, quite frankly,\u201d she says, when asked if the WeChat model can be replicated. \u201cBecause it is moving towards stablization of the usage of applications, and you get into digital assistants coming in and people used to using one avenue or one channel to get information. And also what the likes of Facebook is doing \u2014 and everyone\u2019s trying to do as well with the messaging applications that are becoming more of a platform \u2014 they\u2019re moving in that direction.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s just a case of if the user\u00a0experience is great others will follow because that\u2019s what we generally see with consumers. If the user experience is great the early adopters are going to tell their friends and family, etc, etc. That\u2019s how it goes. And then we see more early mainstream adoption, so I do think it is moving in that direction.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s probably not going to be as quick as it was in China, because of the[ir] mobile-first approach, but it will come\u2026 Slowly but surely over the next few years.\u201d<\/p>\n Facebook\u2019s\u00a0bald-faced attempt to hijack the smartphone homescreen, via the 2013 homescreen replacement app,\u00a0Facebook Home<\/a>, did not\u00a0deliver the landgrab the company\u00a0was seeking. But that earlier stumble\u00a0looks to be\u00a0of little consequence now given the company\u2019s rising\u00a0success in dominating the smartphone experience via\u00a0an indirect strategy focused on\u00a0ramping up the stickiness and functionality of\u00a0its various social and messaging\u00a0platforms to keep\u00a0users playing within its\u00a0walled gardens.<\/p>\n And monopolizing people\u2019s time and attention via\u00a0a suite of increasingly dominant platforms\u00a0ultimately has the same effect as a physical takeover of the third party app space on their handset\u2019s homescreen.<\/p>\n Acquisition has also clearly been key to Facebook\u2019s\u00a0success\u00a0in pulling users\u00a0away from rival\u00a0platforms, with both\u00a0WhatsApp and Instagram brought into the Facebook fold \u2014 adding\u00a0billions of\u00a0users and expanding the walls of its\u00a0empire. (And while Snapchat is the big one that got away, Facebook is working to close down that threat\u00a0by aggressively cloning\u00a0its functionality<\/a>\u00a0\u2014 a strategy that appears to be bearing fruit<\/a>.)<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019ve got a billion users on Facebook Messenger alone, and WhatsApp on a billion as well,\u201d notes\u00a0Ekholm, when asked whether she sees Facebook as the inevitable messaging platform\u00a0winner in the West. \u201cSo it\u2019s really just a question of time. And the user experience has to be there. It has to go beyond the kind of usual \u2018order a pizza by Dominos\u2019 \/\u00a0\u2018order a cab over Uber\u2019. That gets a little bit tiring now.\u201d<\/p>\n There will also still be room for apps to live within Facebook\u2019s\u00a0walled gardens, of course, albeit as more minor bots\/chatbots vs standalone properties. So manager your expectations, developers. And here Ekholm sees AI playing an increasing role in how users will discover services in the Facebook-dominated future.<\/p>\n \u201cIt will be contextualized services. So you\u2019ll get marketing messages floating up depending on who you are and what you\u2019re asking for as well. So it\u2019s not going to be just the main providers \u2014 it\u2019s going to be those ones that you\u2019re requesting. That\u2019s going to be using artificial intelligence that many marketeers are going to be using for their branded apps as well.\u201d<\/p>\n She reckons\u00a0AI is one area where developers can\u00a0still make some kind of dent in the digital\u00a0universe \u2014 despite messaging being monopolized by\u00a0increasingly powerful platform giants.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s always going to be an appetite for something new, something more exciting,\u201d she argues. \u201cBut it has to be an excellent user experience, it has to be something exciting\u2026 There are some very interesting new digital assistants\u2026 There\u2019s a Spanish digital assistant called Sherpa<\/a> that do some really exciting stuff.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s kind of creating that contextual, seamless experience. So a digital assistant that truly knows who you are, what you\u2019re doing, what kind of boundaries you\u2019re setting in terms of privacy, information, location and those kinds of things. We\u2019re really not there yet with any application so I think there\u2019s a whole ground yet to be discovered.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cEven if we\u2019re talking about the post-app era, there\u2019s still going to be opportunities for something new,\u201d she adds. \u201cWill a new application get a billion users? Probably not. But if you get a few hundred thousand you might be acquired.\u201d<\/p>\n Virtual personal assistants (VPAs) are another growth area flagged up in the survey \u2014 though one Facebook is also addressing<\/a>\u00a0(with a built-in assistant within\u00a0Messenger, called M).<\/p>\n And\u00a0it remains to be seen whether\u00a0VPAs will\u00a0ultimately just be folded into messaging platforms as another function within the walled garden. Or whether voice-driven assistants could themselves prove to\u00a0be powerful and disruptive enough to spark a major shift away from smartphone screens (via hands-free devices such as Apple\u2019s AirPods or the Amazon Echo connected speaker, for instance) \u2014 to\u00a0put a noticeable\u00a0dent in messaging platforms\u2019 dominance.<\/p>\n