{"id":19464,"date":"2020-06-29T07:32:06","date_gmt":"2020-06-29T07:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rbsitsoftwaresolution.com\/blog\/facebook-tests-forecast-an-app-for-making-predictions-about-world-events-like-covid-19.html"},"modified":"2020-06-29T07:32:06","modified_gmt":"2020-06-29T07:32:06","slug":"facebook-tests-forecast-an-app-for-making-predictions-about-world-events-like-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbsitsoftwaresolution.in\/blog\/facebook-tests-forecast-an-app-for-making-predictions-about-world-events-like-covid-19.html","title":{"rendered":"Facebook tests Forecast, an app for making predictions about world events, like COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"

Forecast<\/a>, a new project from Facebook\u2019s internal RD group, NPE Team, is launching<\/a> today to build a community around predictions. The iOS app will allow users to ask questions and then use in-app points to make predictions about what might happen in the future. Users can also create, discuss and view these crowdsourced predictions.<\/p>\n

At launch, only invited participants in the U.S. and Canada will be allowed to make predictions and engage in conversations while the app is in beta testing. But these predictions and related discussions will be publicly accessible on the Forecast website<\/a>, and made shareable.<\/p>\n

Before today, Facebook <\/a> tested the product internally with a small set of employees. Their initial forecasts will form the initial core content in the app at launch.<\/p>\n

Starting now, Facebook will invite members of the health, research and academic communities to make predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the world.<\/p>\n

\n

Image Credits:<\/strong> Facebook<\/p>\n

At a time when Facebook and other major tech platforms are under fire for their role in aiding the spread of misinformation, fake news, propaganda, conspiracy theories and other non-factual content presented as truth, an app focused on making \u201cguesses\u201d about the future seems ill-advised \u2014 however educated those guesses may be. This is particularly concerning because much of the app\u2019s content will focus on guesses about COVID-19.<\/p>\n

Forecast\u2019s predictions may help show what people are thinking, but COVID-19 isn\u2019t a game. To understand the world, scientists form a hypothesis, which is essentially an expanded form of an educated guess. But they don\u2019t then crowdsource voting to determine if a hypothesis is true \u2014 they test, experiment, gather supporting data, try to prove and disprove the hypothesis and ultimately aim to publish their findings and have them peer-reviewed.<\/p>\n

The Forecast app turns the hypothesis into the end result, in a way. The app lets users make a forecast and explain their reasoning \u2014 in other words, form a hypothesis. But instead of doing the work to test the forecast, through the application of the scientific method, Forecast will track the votes<\/em> a given question receives.<\/p>\n

For example:\u00a0\u201cWhen will the first COVID-19 vaccine candidate begin phase 3 trials?\u201d<\/em> or \u201cWhen will most U.S. residents be treated with a COVID-19 vaccine?\u201d <\/em>In non-COVID questions, you may come across something\u00a0like \u201cWill the US Presidential Election be fully or partially postponed?\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Questions will be reviewed by the Forecast team and edited for clarity, if needed. Users will be notified if their question is published.<\/p>\n

At some point, the question will be determined as \u201csettled,\u201d based on an elapsed time period or because an event has occurred. For instance, if users were guessing when a vaccine would be released, and then it\u2019s actually released, the questions around that topics would be \u201csettled.\u201d<\/p>\n

Forecast\u2019s polls are given aesthetically pleasing charts and graphs, which can be shared outside the app. That means users could start posting these guesses and the crowdsourced responses to sites like Facebook, where the line between fact and fiction has already blurred. That could further complicate people\u2019s understanding of what is already a complex topic: the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n

Facebook users who see these shared \u201cforecasts\u201d may believe they have some basis in science and research, when instead, they are the result of a social polling app.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Of course, there is some fun in betting on world events and seeing if they turn out to be true, and there is even some value in organizing a wider community\u2019s collective \u201cbest guesses\u201d about a future event to gain an understanding of what people are thinking at a given time. Crowdsourced predictions have their place, as well. But spreading out specific, COVID-19 predictions to Facebook seems like an idea that\u2019s fraught with potential problems and complications.<\/p>\n

And Facebook\u2019s goal here is only to test its own hypothesis \u2014 that a standalone, community-based predictions app that rewards a participatory audience with social credit will surface insightful voices and thoughtful discussions.<\/p>\n

In the end, however, it seems like Facebook is looking for some angle that could prompt thought leaders to engage in meaningful discussions about subjects they know best on a Facebook platform. These sorts of discussions are difficult to have in Facebook\u2019s comments section around a post \u2014 as comments, more often than not, are a place people go to troll, argue, threaten and otherwise derail a conversation. Forecast organizes these experts around a topic and allows them to debate. As a self-contained space with a vetted crowd of participants, that could be interesting. Making the data broadly shareable is an issue, however.<\/p>\n

Facebook says the questions in Forecast will be moderated for clarity using Forecast\u2019s own moderation guidelines<\/a> and Facebook\u2019s Community Standards<\/a>. That means questions can\u2019t mention death, or sexual or violent assault of any individual, including public figures. (This isn\u2019t meant to be some sort of new internet Death Clock<\/a>, for example.) Hate speech<\/a> isn\u2019t allowed. Questions around illegal content or those involving personal information also aren\u2019t permitted, along with other guidelines detailed here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Forecast app is live on the iOS App Store here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Article source: http:\/\/feedproxy.google.com\/~r\/techcrunch\/social\/~3\/pMTgNsTa16U\/<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forecast, a new project from Facebook\u2019s internal RD group, NPE Team, is launching today to build a community around predictions. The iOS app will allow users to ask questions and <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[3],"tags":[10,7,14,15,6,12,11],"class_list":["post-19464","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest-update","tag-computer-news","tag-downloads","tag-microsoft-download-news","tag-networking-updates","tag-technology-update","tag-wordpress-plugin-download","tag-wordpress-theme-download"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t